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# Copyright 2013 Quantopian, Inc. |
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# |
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# Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License"); |
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# you may not use this file except in compliance with the License. |
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# You may obtain a copy of the License at |
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# |
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# http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0 |
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# |
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# Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software |
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# distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS, |
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# WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied. |
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# See the License for the specific language governing permissions and |
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# limitations under the License. |
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import functools |
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import logbook |
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import math |
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import numpy as np |
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import numpy.linalg as la |
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from six import iteritems |
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import pandas as pd |
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from . import risk |
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from . risk import ( |
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alpha, |
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check_entry, |
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downside_risk, |
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information_ratio, |
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sharpe_ratio, |
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sortino_ratio, |
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) |
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from zipline.utils.serialization_utils import ( |
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VERSION_LABEL |
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) |
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log = logbook.Logger('Risk Period') |
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choose_treasury = functools.partial(risk.choose_treasury, |
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risk.select_treasury_duration) |
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class RiskMetricsPeriod(object): |
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def __init__(self, start_date, end_date, returns, env, |
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benchmark_returns=None, algorithm_leverages=None): |
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self.env = env |
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treasury_curves = env.treasury_curves |
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if treasury_curves.index[-1] >= start_date: |
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mask = ((treasury_curves.index >= start_date) & |
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(treasury_curves.index <= end_date)) |
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self.treasury_curves = treasury_curves[mask] |
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else: |
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# our test is beyond the treasury curve history |
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# so we'll use the last available treasury curve |
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self.treasury_curves = treasury_curves[-1:] |
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self.start_date = start_date |
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self.end_date = end_date |
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if benchmark_returns is None: |
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br = env.benchmark_returns |
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benchmark_returns = br[(br.index >= returns.index[0]) & |
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(br.index <= returns.index[-1])] |
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self.algorithm_returns = self.mask_returns_to_period(returns, |
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env) |
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self.benchmark_returns = self.mask_returns_to_period(benchmark_returns, |
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env) |
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self.algorithm_leverages = algorithm_leverages |
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self.calculate_metrics() |
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def calculate_metrics(self): |
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self.benchmark_period_returns = \ |
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self.calculate_period_returns(self.benchmark_returns) |
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self.algorithm_period_returns = \ |
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self.calculate_period_returns(self.algorithm_returns) |
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if not self.algorithm_returns.index.equals( |
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self.benchmark_returns.index |
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): |
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message = "Mismatch between benchmark_returns ({bm_count}) and \ |
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algorithm_returns ({algo_count}) in range {start} : {end}" |
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message = message.format( |
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bm_count=len(self.benchmark_returns), |
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algo_count=len(self.algorithm_returns), |
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start=self.start_date, |
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end=self.end_date |
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) |
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raise Exception(message) |
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self.num_trading_days = len(self.benchmark_returns) |
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self.trading_day_counts = pd.stats.moments.rolling_count( |
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self.algorithm_returns, self.num_trading_days) |
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self.mean_algorithm_returns = \ |
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self.algorithm_returns.cumsum() / self.trading_day_counts |
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self.benchmark_volatility = self.calculate_volatility( |
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self.benchmark_returns) |
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self.algorithm_volatility = self.calculate_volatility( |
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self.algorithm_returns) |
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self.treasury_period_return = choose_treasury( |
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self.treasury_curves, |
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self.start_date, |
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self.end_date, |
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self.env, |
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) |
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self.sharpe = self.calculate_sharpe() |
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# The consumer currently expects a 0.0 value for sharpe in period, |
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# this differs from cumulative which was np.nan. |
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# When factoring out the sharpe_ratio, the different return types |
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# were collapsed into `np.nan`. |
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# TODO: Either fix consumer to accept `np.nan` or make the |
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# `sharpe_ratio` return type configurable. |
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# In the meantime, convert nan values to 0.0 |
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if pd.isnull(self.sharpe): |
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self.sharpe = 0.0 |
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self.sortino = self.calculate_sortino() |
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self.information = self.calculate_information() |
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self.beta, self.algorithm_covariance, self.benchmark_variance, \ |
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self.condition_number, self.eigen_values = self.calculate_beta() |
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self.alpha = self.calculate_alpha() |
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self.excess_return = self.algorithm_period_returns - \ |
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self.treasury_period_return |
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self.max_drawdown = self.calculate_max_drawdown() |
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self.max_leverage = self.calculate_max_leverage() |
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def to_dict(self): |
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""" |
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Creates a dictionary representing the state of the risk report. |
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Returns a dict object of the form: |
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""" |
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period_label = self.end_date.strftime("%Y-%m") |
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rval = { |
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'trading_days': self.num_trading_days, |
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'benchmark_volatility': self.benchmark_volatility, |
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'algo_volatility': self.algorithm_volatility, |
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'treasury_period_return': self.treasury_period_return, |
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'algorithm_period_return': self.algorithm_period_returns, |
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'benchmark_period_return': self.benchmark_period_returns, |
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'sharpe': self.sharpe, |
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'sortino': self.sortino, |
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'information': self.information, |
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'beta': self.beta, |
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'alpha': self.alpha, |
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'excess_return': self.excess_return, |
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'max_drawdown': self.max_drawdown, |
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'max_leverage': self.max_leverage, |
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'period_label': period_label |
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} |
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return {k: None if check_entry(k, v) else v |
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for k, v in iteritems(rval)} |
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def __repr__(self): |
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statements = [] |
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metrics = [ |
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"algorithm_period_returns", |
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"benchmark_period_returns", |
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"excess_return", |
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"num_trading_days", |
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"benchmark_volatility", |
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"algorithm_volatility", |
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"sharpe", |
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"sortino", |
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"information", |
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"algorithm_covariance", |
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"benchmark_variance", |
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"beta", |
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"alpha", |
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"max_drawdown", |
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"max_leverage", |
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"algorithm_returns", |
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"benchmark_returns", |
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"condition_number", |
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"eigen_values" |
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] |
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for metric in metrics: |
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value = getattr(self, metric) |
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statements.append("{m}:{v}".format(m=metric, v=value)) |
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return '\n'.join(statements) |
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def mask_returns_to_period(self, daily_returns, env): |
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if isinstance(daily_returns, list): |
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returns = pd.Series([x.returns for x in daily_returns], |
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index=[x.date for x in daily_returns]) |
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else: # otherwise we're receiving an index already |
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returns = daily_returns |
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trade_days = env.trading_days |
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trade_day_mask = returns.index.normalize().isin(trade_days) |
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mask = ((returns.index >= self.start_date) & |
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(returns.index <= self.end_date) & trade_day_mask) |
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returns = returns[mask] |
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return returns |
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def calculate_period_returns(self, returns): |
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period_returns = (1. + returns).prod() - 1 |
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return period_returns |
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def calculate_volatility(self, daily_returns): |
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return np.std(daily_returns, ddof=1) * math.sqrt(self.num_trading_days) |
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def calculate_sharpe(self): |
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""" |
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sharpe_ratio |
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""" |
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return sharpe_ratio(self.algorithm_volatility, |
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self.algorithm_period_returns, |
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self.treasury_period_return) |
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def calculate_sortino(self): |
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""" |
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sortino_ratio |
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""" |
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mar = downside_risk(self.algorithm_returns, |
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self.mean_algorithm_returns, |
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self.num_trading_days) |
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# Hold on to downside risk for debugging purposes. |
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self.downside_risk = mar |
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return sortino_ratio(self.algorithm_period_returns, |
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self.treasury_period_return, |
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mar) |
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def calculate_information(self): |
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""" |
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_ratio |
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""" |
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return information_ratio(self.algorithm_returns, |
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self.benchmark_returns) |
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def calculate_beta(self): |
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""" |
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.. math:: |
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\\beta_a = \\frac{\mathrm{Cov}(r_a,r_p)}{\mathrm{Var}(r_p)} |
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beta_(finance) |
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""" |
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# it doesn't make much sense to calculate beta for less than two days, |
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# so return nan. |
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if len(self.algorithm_returns) < 2: |
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return np.nan, np.nan, np.nan, np.nan, [] |
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returns_matrix = np.vstack([self.algorithm_returns, |
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self.benchmark_returns]) |
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C = np.cov(returns_matrix, ddof=1) |
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# If there are missing benchmark values, then we can't calculate the |
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# beta. |
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if not np.isfinite(C).all(): |
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return np.nan, np.nan, np.nan, np.nan, [] |
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eigen_values = la.eigvals(C) |
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condition_number = max(eigen_values) / min(eigen_values) |
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algorithm_covariance = C[0][1] |
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benchmark_variance = C[1][1] |
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beta = algorithm_covariance / benchmark_variance |
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return ( |
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beta, |
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algorithm_covariance, |
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benchmark_variance, |
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condition_number, |
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eigen_values |
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) |
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def calculate_alpha(self): |
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""" |
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alpha_(investment) |
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""" |
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return alpha(self.algorithm_period_returns, |
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self.treasury_period_return, |
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self.benchmark_period_returns, |
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self.beta) |
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def calculate_max_drawdown(self): |
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compounded_returns = [] |
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cur_return = 0.0 |
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for r in self.algorithm_returns: |
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try: |
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cur_return += math.log(1.0 + r) |
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# this is a guard for a single day returning -100%, if returns are |
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# greater than -1.0 it will throw an error because you cannot take |
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# the log of a negative number |
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except ValueError: |
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log.debug("{cur} return, zeroing the returns".format( |
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cur=cur_return)) |
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cur_return = 0.0 |
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compounded_returns.append(cur_return) |
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cur_max = None |
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max_drawdown = None |
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for cur in compounded_returns: |
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if cur_max is None or cur > cur_max: |
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cur_max = cur |
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drawdown = (cur - cur_max) |
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if max_drawdown is None or drawdown < max_drawdown: |
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max_drawdown = drawdown |
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if max_drawdown is None: |
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return 0.0 |
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return 1.0 - math.exp(max_drawdown) |
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def calculate_max_leverage(self): |
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if self.algorithm_leverages is None: |
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return 0.0 |
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else: |
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return max(self.algorithm_leverages) |
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def __getstate__(self): |
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state_dict = {k: v for k, v in iteritems(self.__dict__) |
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if not k.startswith('_')} |
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STATE_VERSION = 3 |
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state_dict[VERSION_LABEL] = STATE_VERSION |
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return state_dict |
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def __setstate__(self, state): |
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OLDEST_SUPPORTED_STATE = 3 |
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version = state.pop(VERSION_LABEL) |
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if version < OLDEST_SUPPORTED_STATE: |
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raise BaseException("RiskMetricsPeriod saved state \ |
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is too old.") |
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self.__dict__.update(state) |
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