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                import pickle  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                import numpy as np  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                from hmmlearn.hmm import MultinomialHMM  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                class HMM:  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                    r"""Hidden Markov Model  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                    This HMM class implements solution of two problems:  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                    # Supervised learning problem  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                    # Decode Problem  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                    Supervised learning:  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                    Given a sequence of observation O: O1, O2, O3, ... and corresponding state sequence Q: Q1, Q2, Q3, ...  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                    Update probability of state transition matrix A, and observation probability matrix B.  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                    The value of both A and B are estimated based on the state transition and observation in training data,  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                    so that the joint probability of X (the given observation) and Y (the given state sequence) is maximized.  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                    Decode Problem:  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                    Given state transition matrix A, and observation probability matrix B, and a sequence of observation  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                    O: O1, O2, O3, ... Find the most probable state sequence Q: Q1, Q3, Q3, ...  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                    In this code, Vertibi algorithm is implemented to solve the decode problem.  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                    Args:  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        num_states (:obj:`int`): Size of state space  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        num_observations (:obj:`int`): Size of observation space  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                    Attributes:  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        num_states (:obj:`int`): Size of state space  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        num_observations (:obj:`int`): Size of observation space  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        A (:obj:`numpy.ndarray`): Transition matrix of size (num_states, num_states), where :math:`a_{ij}` is the  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                            probability of transition from :math:`q_i` to :math:`q_j`  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        B (:obj:`numpy.ndarray`): Emission matrix of size (num_states, num_observation), where :math:`b_{ij}` is the  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                            probability of observing :math:`o_j` from :math:`q_i`  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        total_learned_events (:obj:`int`): Number of events learned so far - used for incremental learning  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                                                                
            
                                    
            
            
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                    """  | 
            
            
                                                                        
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                    def __init__(self, num_states, num_observations):  | 
            
            
                                                                        
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        self.num_states = num_states  | 
            
            
                                                                        
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        self.num_observations = num_observations  | 
            
            
                                                                        
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        self.A_count = np.ones((num_states, num_states))  | 
            
            
                                                                        
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        self.B_count = np.ones((num_states, num_observations))  | 
            
            
                                                                        
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        self.A = self.A_count / np.sum(self.A_count, axis=1, keepdims=True)  | 
            
            
                                                                        
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        self.B = self.B_count / np.sum(self.B_count, axis=1, keepdims=True)  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                    def decode(self, observations, init_probability):  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        """Vertibi Decode Algorithm  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        Parameters  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        ----------  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        observations : np.array  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                            A sequence of observation of size (T, ) O: O_1, O_2, ..., O_T  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        init_probability : np.array  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                            Initial probability of states represented by an array of size (N, )  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        Vertibi algorithm is composed of three parts: Initialization, Recursion and Termination  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        Temporary Parameters  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        --------------------  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        trellis : np.array  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                            trellis stores the best scores so far (or Vertibi path probility)  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                            It is an array of size (N, T), where N is the number of states, and T is the length of observation sequence  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                            trellis_{jt} = max_{q_0, q_1, ..., q_{t-1}} P(q_0, q_1, ..., q_t, o_1, o_2, ..., o_n, q_t=j | \lambda) | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        back_trace : np.array  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                            back_trace is an array that stores the most possible path that corresponds to the best scores in trellis  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                            It is an array of size (N, T) as well  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        """  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        # Allocate temporary arrays  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        T = observations.shape[0]  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        trellis = np.zeros((self.num_states, T))  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        back_trace = np.ones((self.num_states, T)) * -1  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        # Initialization  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        # trellis_{i0} = \pi_{i} * B{i,O_0} | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        # In Probability Term:  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        # P(O_0, q_0=k) = P(O_0 | q_0=k) * P(q_0 = k)  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        trellis[:, 0] = np.squeeze(init_probability * self.B[:, observations[0]])  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        # Recursion  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        # If the end state is q_T = k, find the q_{T-1} so that the likelihood to q_T = k is maximized | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        # And store that maximum likelihood in trellis for future use  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        # trellis_{k, T} = max_{x} P(O_0, O_1, ..., O_T, q_0, q_1, ..., q_{T-1}=x, q_T=k) | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        #                = max_{x} P(O_0, O_1, ..., O_{T-1}, q_0, q_1, ..., q_{T-1}=x) * P(q_T=k|q_{T-1}=x) * P(O_T|q_T=k) | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        #                = max_{x} trellis_{x, T-1} * A_{x,k} * B(k, O_T) | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        for i in range(1, T):  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                            trellis[:, i] = (trellis[:, i-1, None].dot(self.B[:, observations[i], None].T) * self.A).max(0)  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                            back_trace[:, i] = (np.tile(trellis[:, i-1, None], [1, self.num_states]) * self.A).argmax(0)  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        # Termination - back trace  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        tokens = [trellis[:, -1].argmax()]  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        for i in range(T-1, 0, -1):  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                            tokens.append(int(back_trace[tokens[-1], i]))  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        return tokens[::-1]  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                    def learn(self, observations, states):  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        """Update transition matrix A and emission matrix B with training sequence composed of a sequence of   | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        observations and corresponding states.  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        """  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        # Make sure that states and observations equal each other  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        if observations.shape[0] == states.shape[0]:  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                            T = observations.shape[0]  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        else:  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                            return -1  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        # Update Counts  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        for i in range(1, T):  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                            if states[i] >= self.num_states or states[i-1] >= self.num_states or \  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                                            observations[i] >= self.num_observations:  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                                return -2  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                            # Update Emission Count (Skip the first one)  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                            self.B_count[states[i], observations[i]] += 1  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                            # Update State Transition  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                            self.A_count[states[i-1], states[i]] += 1  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        # Update Probability Matrix  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        self.A = self.A_count / np.sum(self.A_count, axis=1, keepdims=True)  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        self.B = self.B_count / np.sum(self.B_count, axis=1, keepdims=True)  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                    120
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                    def save(self, filename):  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        """Pickle the model to file.  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                          | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                        Args:  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                            filename (:obj:`str`): The path of the file to store the model parameters.  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                    125
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                        """  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                    126
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                        f = open(filename, 'wb')  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                    127
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                        pickle.dump(self, f, protocol=pickle.HIGHEST_PROTOCOL)  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                    128
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                        f.close()  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                    129
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                    130
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                    def predict(self, x, init_prob=None, method='hmmlearn', window=-1):  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                    131
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                        """Predict result based on HMM  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                    132
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                        """  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                    133
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                        if init_prob is None:  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                    134
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                            init_prob = np.array([1/self.num_states for i in range(self.num_states)])  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                    135
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                 | 
                        if method == 'hmmlearn':  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
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                    136
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                            model = MultinomialHMM(self.num_states, n_iter=100)  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
                | 
                    137
                 | 
                                    
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                 | 
                            model.n_features = self.num_observations  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
                | 
                    138
                 | 
                                    
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                            model.startprob_ = init_prob  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
                | 
                    139
                 | 
                                    
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                 | 
                            model.emissionprob_ = self.B  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
                | 
                    140
                 | 
                                    
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                 | 
                            model.transmat_ = self.A  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                                                    
                                                                                                        
            
            
                | 
                    141
                 | 
                                    
                                                     | 
                
                View Code Duplication | 
                            if window == -1:  | 
            
                            
                    | 
                        
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                     | 
                    
                                                                                                    
                        
                         
                                                                                        
                                                                                     
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                | 
                    142
                 | 
                                    
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                                result = model.predict(x)  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
                | 
                    143
                 | 
                                    
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                            else:  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
                | 
                    144
                 | 
                                    
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                 | 
                                result = np.zeros(x.shape[0], dtype=np.int)  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
                | 
                    145
                 | 
                                    
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                 | 
                                result[0:window] = model.predict(x[0:window])  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
                | 
                    146
                 | 
                                    
                                                     | 
                
                 | 
                                for i in range(window, x.shape[0]):  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
                | 
                    147
                 | 
                                    
                                                     | 
                
                 | 
                                    result[i] = model.predict(x[i-window+1:i+1])[-1]  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
                | 
                    148
                 | 
                                    
                                                     | 
                
                 | 
                        else:  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                                                    
                                                                                                        
            
            
                | 
                    149
                 | 
                                    
                                                     | 
                
                View Code Duplication | 
                            if window == -1:  | 
            
                            
                    | 
                        
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                | 
                    150
                 | 
                                    
                                                     | 
                
                 | 
                                result = self.decode(x, init_prob)  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
                | 
                    151
                 | 
                                    
                                                     | 
                
                 | 
                            else:  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
                | 
                    152
                 | 
                                    
                                                     | 
                
                 | 
                                result = np.zeros(x.shape[0], dtype=np.int)  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
                | 
                    153
                 | 
                                    
                                                     | 
                
                 | 
                                result[0:window] = self.decode(x[0:window], init_prob)  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
                | 
                    154
                 | 
                                    
                                                     | 
                
                 | 
                                for i in range(window, x.shape[0]):  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
                | 
                    155
                 | 
                                    
                                                     | 
                
                 | 
                                    result[i] = self.decode(x[i-window+1:i+1], init_prob)[-1]  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
                | 
                    156
                 | 
                                    
                                                     | 
                
                 | 
                        return result  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
                | 
                    157
                 | 
                                    
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                 | 
                 | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
                | 
                    158
                 | 
                                    
                                                     | 
                
                 | 
                    def predict_prob(self, x, init_prob=None, window=-1):  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
                | 
                    159
                 | 
                                    
                                                     | 
                
                 | 
                        """Predict the probability  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
                | 
                    160
                 | 
                                    
                                                     | 
                
                 | 
                        """  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
                | 
                    161
                 | 
                                    
                                                     | 
                
                 | 
                        if init_prob is None:  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
                | 
                    162
                 | 
                                    
                                                     | 
                
                 | 
                            init_prob = np.array([1/self.num_states for i in range(self.num_states)])  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
                | 
                    163
                 | 
                                    
                                                     | 
                
                 | 
                        model = MultinomialHMM(self.num_states)  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
                | 
                    164
                 | 
                                    
                                                     | 
                
                 | 
                        model.n_features = self.num_observations  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
                | 
                    165
                 | 
                                    
                                                     | 
                
                 | 
                        model.startprob_ = init_prob  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
                | 
                    166
                 | 
                                    
                                                     | 
                
                 | 
                        model.emissionprob_ = self.B  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                            
            
                                    
            
            
                | 
                    167
                 | 
                                    
                                                     | 
                
                 | 
                        model.transmat_ = self.A  | 
            
            
                                                                                                            
                                                                
            
                                    
            
            
                | 
                    168
                 | 
                                    
                                                     | 
                
                 | 
                        return model.predict_proba(x)  | 
            
            
                                                        
            
                                    
            
            
                | 
                    169
                 | 
                                    
                                                     | 
                
                 | 
                 |