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<?php |
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/** |
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* Klass HistorisktUtfall. |
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* @author Niklas Dougherty |
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*/ |
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declare(strict_types=1); |
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namespace Tips\Klasser\JusteradePrediktioner; |
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use Tips\Klasser\DBPreferenser; |
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use Tips\Klasser\Prediktioner; |
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/** |
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* Klass HistorisktUtfall. |
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* Beräkna prediktioner retroaktivt för att i bayesisk mening |
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* uppskatta verkliga odds. |
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*/ |
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class HistorisktUtfall { |
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protected DBPreferenser $db_preferenser; |
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/** |
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* @var array<int, float[]> $odds_j |
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*/ |
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protected array $odds_j; |
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/** |
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* @var array<int, float[]> $streck_j |
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*/ |
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protected array $streck_j; |
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/** |
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* Initiera. |
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*/ |
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public function __construct(public Prediktioner $prediktioner) { |
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$this->db_preferenser = new DBPreferenser($this->prediktioner->spel->db); |
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} |
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/** |
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* Beräkna historiskt utfall. |
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*/ |
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protected function historiskt_utfall(): void { |
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/** |
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* Tre kolumner för procentsatser mellan 0 och 100. |
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*/ |
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$this->streck_j = array_fill(0, 3, array_fill(0, 101, 0)); |
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$this->odds_j = $this->streck_j; |
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$cstreck = $this->odds_j; |
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$codds = $cstreck; |
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/** |
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* Prediktioner för alla omgångar. |
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*/ |
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$oddsprediktioner = $this->prediktioner->prediktionsdata('odds'); |
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$streckprediktioner = $this->prediktioner->prediktionsdata('streck'); |
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/** |
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* Summera sannolikheter och utfall. |
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*/ |
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foreach ($this->prediktioner->tipsdata() as $omgång => $tipsrad_012) { |
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if (isset($oddsprediktioner[$omgång], $streckprediktioner[$omgång])) { |
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$oddssannolikheter = odds_till_sannolikheter($oddsprediktioner[$omgång]); |
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$strecksannolikheter = streck_till_sannolikheter($streckprediktioner[$omgång]); |
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foreach ($oddssannolikheter as $index => $oddssannolikhet) { |
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$strecksannolikhet = $strecksannolikheter[$index]; |
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$os_procent = array_map('procenttal', $oddssannolikhet); |
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$ss_procent = array_map('procenttal', $strecksannolikhet); |
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foreach (array_keys($oddssannolikhet) as $j) { |
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$codds[$j][$os_procent[$j]]++; |
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$cstreck[$j][$ss_procent[$j]]++; |
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} |
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$tecken_012 = intval($tipsrad_012[$index]); |
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$this->odds_j[$tecken_012][$os_procent[$tecken_012]]++; |
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$this->streck_j[$tecken_012][$ss_procent[$tecken_012]]++; |
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} |
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} |
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} |
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$this->procentuell_fördelning($codds, $cstreck); |
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} |
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/** |
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* Procentuell fördelning. |
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* @param array<int, float[]> $codds |
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* @param array<int, float[]> $cstreck |
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*/ |
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private function procentuell_fördelning(array $codds, array $cstreck): void { |
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/** |
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* Omvandla summering till procentuell fördelning. |
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*/ |
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foreach ($this->odds_j as $index => $oddssannolikhet) { |
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foreach (array_keys($oddssannolikhet) as $j) { |
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$this->odds_j[$index][$j] /= max($codds[$index][$j], 1); |
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$this->streck_j[$index][$j] /= max($cstreck[$index][$j], 1); |
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} |
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} |
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} |
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} |
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dougherty-dev /
Tips
